In recent years, the internationalization of the RMB has made great achievements. As of this year, the RMB-denominated settlement rate in traditional trade financing has jumped to the second place in the world, and the trading volume of RMB in the global foreign exchange market in 2013, which was calculated by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), has also entered the top ten for the first time.

    Behind this "achievement" of RMB internationalization, the overvaluation of the exchange rate leads to industrial "hollowing out", the path of RMB internationalization has also aroused a lot of concerns and questions.

    We need to look back to the dollar, the yen or the former German mark, what problems have they encountered in the process of internationalization?

    In fact, from the end of the 19th century to the 1960s and 1970s, the above countries experienced resistance from industrialists and businessmen in promoting the internationalization of their local currencies, not to mention the strong promotion by the government and the media. In the final analysis, their own businessmen feared that the surge in global demand for their currencies as internationalization progressed would inevitably lead to an appreciation of their currencies and deal a fatal blow to their local industries. They believe that before the industrialization of their own countries has taken a corresponding dominant position in the world, the local currency should not be allowed to appreciate easily.

    Therefore, some economists have warned that the current yuan too fast unilateral appreciation will aggravate the domestic industrial "hollowing out", those can be traded to a higher degree of the industry is concentrated in the region of the bank's bad debt pressure is increasing day by day, and should be caused by the relevant departments to pay attention to.

    As early as 1890 and 1920 around these two key stages, from its gross domestic product or industrial competitiveness and other perspectives to evaluate the strength of the currency, the U.S. dollar can actually reach the internationalization of the degree, but due to the huge resistance by the domestic until the end of the Second World War, until after the U.S. Treasury Department, such as White and other elites of a few, to make the majority of the national currencies pegged to the U.S. dollar to achieve the To this day, the dollar "hegemony" status.

    Japan's internationalization of the yen is also "extremely reluctant". After the rise of the Japanese economy in the 1960s, they did not implement the internationalization, until the United States in the 1980s pushed the yen's appreciation. Similarly, the German mark in the euro zone and even in the global internationalization of the promotion, is also very slow. One wonders if our current per capita economic level and industrial technological competitiveness is stronger than that of Japan and Germany in the late 1970s. If the answer is no, then it may not be appropriate to use the whole country to speed up the internationalization of RMB.

    Another questionable point is that most of the "achievements" of RMB internationalization so far have been brought about by the offshore market rather than the local market. An internationalization that relies more on RMB transactions in the "outside" offshore market may never achieve a qualitative leap.

    Zhang Guangping, deputy director of the Shanghai Banking Regulatory Bureau, in his book "RMB Internationalization and Product Innovation (Fourth Edition)", has repeatedly mentioned the difficulties faced by China's current RMB internationalization. The book suggests that there are inconsistencies in the RMB's trading volume data in the global foreign exchange market due to statistical caliber issues. The latest ranking of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in 2013 shows that the size of the RMB in global foreign exchange transactions has accounted for 2.2% of the total, ranking among the top ten for the first time.

    In addition to the BIS official data ranking, according to the relevant data released by the People's Bank of China can also be inverted to launch another domestic caliber ranking. 2010 to 2013 four years, the BIS caliber of the RMB global trading volume accounted for 0.9%, 1.3%, 1.8% and 2.2%, but the domestic caliber of the RMB daily turnover accounted for 0.64%, 0.70%, 0.76% and 0.83%, respectively, 0.76% and 0.83%, and the rankings should be the twenty-first, twenty-first, twenty-first and twenty-first, which are much lower than the results published by BIS.

    Transaction volume shows the real meaning of the currency liquidity situation, the above two caliber statistics can be subtracted from the offshore market trading volume, in the past four years it accounted for 29%, 46%, 58% and 62% of the total market share. This shows that the offshore market has been increasing rapidly year by year, and the magnitude is much higher than that of the domestic market, which is not a very normal situation.

    According to philosophical principles, external causes are the conditions for change, internal causes are the basis for change, and external causes work through internal causes; if we rely heavily on offshore RMB trading as an "external cause" to promote internationalization, we may never be able to achieve a qualitative leap.