China's foreign trade deeply reflects domestic economic structure


Date:

2024-03-21

On April 16, 2014, the State released foreign trade data for the first quarter of 2014, in dollar terms, imports and exports declined slightly, with exports falling by 3.4 per cent and imports growing slightly.

On April 16, 2014, the State released foreign trade data for the first quarter of 2014, in dollar terms, imports and exports declined slightly, with exports falling by 3.4 per cent and imports growing slightly.  

Overall, the foreign trade data for the first quarter of this year basically reflects the actual situation of China's foreign trade. before May 2013, trading enterprises adopted the "one-day tour" method and the way of importing and exporting goods in special supervised zones, utilizing the exchange rate and the short-term interest rate for arbitrage, which resulted in false trade and arbitrage trade. Therefore, the trade data of the first quarter of 2013 was not objective. After May 2013, the General Administration of Customs, Ministry of Commerce, People's Bank of China and other central government agencies introduced a series of regulatory measures, accordingly squeezing out the "water" of the false trade, so the data of the first quarter of this year showed a small decline, which is not surprising and did not exceed our expectations. The data for the first quarter of this year showed a small decline, which did not exceed our expectations.  

Usually, under the same conditions, the export situation mainly reflects the external market demand situation, the import situation reflects the domestic market demand situation. The small decline in exports in the first quarter of this year shows that the external market demand has not yet recovered to the situation before the international financial crisis. in the first quarter of 2014, China's exports to the United States showed a slight decline, and Hong Kong is a sharp decline, the range reached 33.2%. In addition, the decline in domestic economic growth, market demand is weak, showing a low rate of growth in imports.  

Practice has proved that China's foreign trade deeply reflects the domestic economic structure. Over the years, China's foreign trade structure has not undergone fundamental changes, the most competitive products in exports are still labor-intensive products, especially textiles, clothing, shoes and hats, furniture and so on. Although the scale of exports of products with high technological content is increasing, they have not mastered core technologies, their international competitiveness is still weak, and their position in the international division of labor is not satisfactory. For example, the most critical chips in information technology products produced in China depend on imports, and the key components of transportation equipment, engines, also depend mainly on imports. After the international financial crisis, the most important change in China's foreign trade is the diversification of target markets for traded products, especially the development of more emerging markets and the shift of some products from developed countries to emerging countries. After the international financial crisis, China's original factors affecting its comparative advantage have changed significantly, with labor and raw material costs rising and the RMB appreciating against the US dollar. As a result, the space for the development of competitive products in China's foreign trade has become narrow, while new types of products have yet to become competitive.  

At the same time, China has further adjusted the structure of trade mode. in the first quarter of 2014, China's processing trade import and export, export and import decreased by 5.4%, 4.8% and 6.5% respectively compared with the same period of the previous year, while the same period of the previous year increased by 6%, 3.9% and 9.9% respectively; general trade import and export, export and import increased by 9.4%, 6.3% and 12.2% respectively compared with the same period of the previous year, while the same period of the previous year saw an increase in import and export by 6%, 6.3% and 12.2% respectively, compared with the same period of the previous year. Compared with the same period of the previous year, imports and exports increased by 2 percentage points, exports fell 10.3 percentage points, imports increased by 11.1 percentage points, continue to maintain the growth trend of the same period of the previous year. General trade and processing trade showed an increase and a decrease trend, so the proportion of the two modes of trade has been adjusted. 2014 quarter, general trade accounted for import and export, exports, imports, the proportion of 55.16%, 50.51%, 59.97%, compared with the same period last year, an increase of 5.27 percentage points, 4.6 percentage points, 5.73 percentage points; Processing Trade accounted for The proportion of processing trade in import and export, export and import is 31.63%, 39.48% and 23.51% respectively, which is 1.51 percentage points, 0.54 percentage points and 2.12 percentage points less than the same period of last year. Nevertheless, China's foreign trade this year still has relatively favorable factors. First, the European Union is China's largest trading partner, its economic situation is relatively good, will be conducive to China's export growth situation. Secondly, the recent decline of the RMB against the US dollar will also be favorable to China's exports. Third, China's implementation of policies to maintain growth, adjust structure and promote reform will be conducive to adjusting the structure of trade products and gradually improving their international competitiveness.